Research

Books:

2013. A Mathematics Course for Political and Social Research. Princeton University Press. (with Will H. Moore) (Link to Book's Page)

2011. A Behavioral Theory of Elections. Princeton University Press. (with Jonathan Bendor, Daniel Diermeier, and Michael M. Ting) (Link to Book's Page)

• Honorable mention for the 2012 William F. Riker Prize for the best book in political economics.

Peer-Reviewed Journal Articles and Book Chapters:

Forthcoming. "Identifiability, State Repression, and the Onset of Ethnic Conflict." Public Choice. (with Christine Mele) (Link to Paper, Ungated version, Appendix)

Forthcoming. "Hierarchy and the Provision of Order in International Politics." Journal of Politics. (with Kyle Beardsley, Howard Liu, Peter Mucha, and Juan Tellez) (Link to Paper, Appendix)

2020. "Networks and Media Influence." In the Oxford Handbook of Electoral Persuasion edited by Elizabeth Suhay, Bernard Grofman, and Alexander Trechsel. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press. (Link to Paper)

2019. "Pink Slips from the Underground: Changes in Terror Leadership." International Studies Quarterly 63(2): 231-243. (with Margaret Foster) (Link to Paper, Ungated Version)

2019. "New Techniques in Teaching Terrorism." In the Oxford Handbook on Terrorism, edited by Erica Chenoweth, Richard English, Andreas Gofas, and Stathis N. Kalyvas. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press. Ch. 34. (Link to Paper)

2017. "Identity, Repression, and the Threat of Ethnic Conflict in a Strong State." Journal of Theoretical Politics 29 (4): 578-598. (with Christine S. Mele) (Link to Paper)

2017. "Democratic Institutions and Political Networks." In the Oxford Handbook of Political Networks, edited by Jennifer Nicoll Victor, Mark Lubell, and Alexander H. Montgomery. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press 817-833. (Link to Paper)

2015. "Coordination and Security: How Mobile Communications Affect Insurgency." Journal of Peace Research 52 (3): 312-322. (with Jacob N. Shapiro) (Link to Paper)

2014. "Response to Martin and Vanberg: Evaluating a Stochastic Model of Government Formation." Journal of Politics 76 (4): 880-886. (with Matt Golder and Sona N. Golder) (Link to Paper)

2013. "Social Networks and the Mass Media." American Political Science Review 107 (4): 786-805. (Link to Paper, Technical Appendix)

2013. "Will You Accept the Government's Friend Request? Social Networks and Privacy Concerns." PLoS ONE 8 (11): e80682. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0080682. (Link to Paper, Replication Materials).

2013. "Religious Participation, Social Conservatism, and Human Development." Journal of Politics 75 (4): 1125-1141. (with Ben Gaskins and Matt Golder) (Link to Paper, Technical Appendix, Replication Materials)

2013. "Religious Participation and Economic Conservatism." American Journal of Political Science 57 (4): 823-840. (with Ben Gaskins and Matt Golder) (Link to Paper, Technical Appendix, Replication Materials)

2012. "Modeling the Institutional Foundations of Parliamentary Government Formation." Journal of Politics 74 (2): 427-445. (with Matt Golder and Sona N. Golder) (Link to Paper, Replication Materials)

2012. "Moral Hazard, Discipline, and the Management of Terrorist Organizations." World Politics 64 (1): 39-78. (with Jacob N. Shapiro) (Link to Paper, Technical Appendix)

2011. "When Does Repression Work?: Collective Action and Social Networks." Journal of Politics 73 (4): 993-1010. (Link to Paper, Technical Appendix)

• Winner of the 2012 Political Ties Award for the best paper on political networks over the past two years.

2011. "Identity, Bargaining, and Third-Party Mediation." International Theory 3 (3): 416-449. (with Ray Block, Jr.) (Link to Paper)

2011. "Non-disruptive Tactics of Suppression are Superior in Countering Terrorism, Insurgency, and Financial Panics." PLoS ONE 6 (4): e18545. doi:10.371/journal.pone.0018545. (Link to Paper)

2011. "A Strategic Theory of Policy Diffusion via Intergovernmental Competition." Journal of Politics 73 (1): 232-247. (with Brady Baybeck and William D. Berry) (Link to Paper, Technical Appendix)

2011. "Social Networks in Comparative Perspective." PS: Political Science & Politics 44 (1): 51-54. (Link to Paper)

2010. "Is This Paper Dangerous? Balancing secrecy and openness in counterterrorism." Security Studies 19 (1) 66-98. (with Jacob N. Shapiro) (Link to Paper, Mathematical Appendix)

2010. "Adaptively Rational Retrospective Voting." Journal of Theoretical Politics 22 (1): 26-63. (with Jonathan Bendor and Sunil Kumar) (Link to Paper)

2009. "Simulating Terrorism:  Credible Commitment, Costly Signaling, and Strategic Behavior." PS: Political Science & Politics 42 (4): 765-771. (with Joseph K. Young) (Link to Paper, Simulation Materials)

2009. "Social Networks and Collective Action." American Journal of Political Science 53 (1): 122-138. (Link to Paper, Technical Appendix)

2009. "Satisficing: A 'Pretty Good' Heuristic." The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics: Vol. 9: Iss. 1 (Advances), Article 9. (with Jonathan Bendor and Sunil Kumar). (Link to Paper)

2007. "Underfunding in Terrorist Organizations." International Studies Quarterly 51 (2): 405-429. (with Jacob N. Shapiro) (Link to Paper, Mathematical Appendix)

• 2009. Reprinted in N. Memon, J. D. Farley, D. L. Hicks, and T Rosenorn eds., Mathematical Methods in Counterterrorism, Springer Wien New York.

2007. "Rational Parties and Retrospective Voters." In Topics in Analytical Political Economy, edited by William Barnett and Melvin J. Hinich, pp. 1-30. Oxford, UK: Elsevier. (with Jonathan Bendor and Sunil Kumar) (Paper)

Under Review/Revision:

"Cults of personality, preference falsification, and the dictator's dilemma" (with Charles Crabtree and Holger Kern)

“Can Money Buy Control of Congress? The System-level Effects of Campaign Expenditures on Congressional Elections” (with William Minozzi and Gabriel Madson)

Working Papers:

“State Interventions and the Growth or Suppression of Terror and Insurgent Attacks” (with Margaret Foster, Katie Webster, So Jin Lee, Marco Morucci, Liz Carlson, and Will Moore)

"Deliberative Networks: Social Structure and Group Decision-Making" (with Scott McClurg and Anand Sokhey)

Book Reviews:

2013. Review of Meredith Rolfe's Voter Turnout: A Social Theory of Political Participation in the Journal of Politics 75 (1): E3 (doi:10.1017/S0022381612001041).

2008. Review of Mikkel Vedby Rasmussens's The Risk Society at War: Terror, Technology, and Strategy in the Twenty-First Century in Perspectives on Politics 6 (2): 427-428.

Other Publications:

1998. "Laser polarized muonic He-3 and spin dependent mu(-) capture." Nuclear Instruments & Methods in Physics Research Section A-Accelerators Spectrometers Detectors and Associated Equipment. 402: (2-3) 311-318. (with PA Souder et al.)

1997. "A combined polarized target/ionization chamber for measuring the spin dependence of nuclear muon capture in laser polarized muonic He-3. Nuclear Instruments & Methods in Physics Research Section A-Accelerators Spectrometers Detectors and Associated Equipment. 398: (2-3) 211-223. (with P Bogorad et al.)

1996. "Laser-polarized muonic He-3 and a measurement of the induced pseudoscalar coupling." Hyperfine Interactions. 102: 433-437. (with P Bogorad et al.)