Political Science 142
War and Peace
Social Sciences 119
406 Perkins Library
Tuesday & Thursday 10:05-11:20
Office Hours: Tuesday & Thursday 1:30-2:30
In this course we will read and evaluate the social science literature on the causes of war. We will focus our attention on both theoretical and empirical works in this area, and we will address a wide variety of research strategies. After reviewing many of the prominent theories of war, we shall apply these ideas to the analysis of several case studies. The primary objectives of this course are: 1) to identify the strengths and weaknesses of the literature concerning the causes of war, 2) to define specific questions and issues which must be addressed by future research, 3) to apply our knowledge of the causes of war to several prominent historical case studies.
Student performance will be evaluated on the following basis:
1) A 75 minute , in-class midterm exam, covering the theories of war discussed in the first section of the course. The exam will be given on THURSDAY MARCH 15, and will account for 25% of your grade.
2) A research paper of approximately 10-15 pages will be due at 9:00 AM on MONDAY APRIL 30. Students will be expected to apply one or more of the theories reviewed in this course to one or more historical cases that are not reviewed in this course. By a "case" I am referring either to a war or to a crisis in which war was averted. Students may select more than one theory and determine which approach provides the most persuasive explanation of a particular case or they may test one theory against two or more cases. Some reseach will be required for this assignment, but I do not expect your papers to be major historical undertakings. Your task will be made easier by selecting wars or crises which have already received a good deal of attention from historians. The research paper will account for 35% of your grade.
It is important that students cite the material that they have relied upon in writing these papers. If you have questions about when you need to provide citation for a source, please see the Duke Libraries' guide on avoiding plagaiarism. If you have questions about how to provide citation on your sources, please see the Duke Libraries' guide on citation formats. Use any citation format that you prefer, what is important is that you give credit to the sources you used.
3) A final exam, is scheduled for FRIDAY MAY 4 from 7:00 PM to 10:00 PM. This exam will be cumulative across the entire semester. The date of the exam is set by the University and no changes can be made. This exam will account for the final 40% of your grade.
EXTRA CREDIT! In addition to these graded assignments, students enrolled in PS 142 are strongly encouraged to participate in the Political Science experimental subject pool. Students will need to participate in 2 hours of Political Science Research Pool (PSRP) studies over the course of the semester to receive a 2% extra credit toward their final grade. More information on this option is available at http://www.duke.edu/web/psrp. If you wish to participate, you can register at: http://duke-psrp.sona-systems.com.
The following books have been ordered and should be available for purchase at the Bryan Center bookstore. They are also on reserve, but because we will be referring to them frequently I suggest you buy them if at all possible. In addition, the articles are available on reserve at Perkins Library, on e-reserves, and/or online databases through Duke Libraries. You can click on the title to be linked to that reading.
Sean Lynn-Jones and Steven Miller, eds., The Cold War and After, MIT
Press, Cambridge: MA, (1993).
Manus I. Midlarsky, ed., Handbook of War Studies II, University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor: MI (2000).
Steven Miller, ed., Military Strategy and the Origins of the First World War, Princeton University Press, Princeton: NJ, (1991).
Gary King, Robert Keohane, and Sidney Verba, Designing Social Inquiry, Princeton University Press, Princeton: NJ, (1994).
Schedule of Readings and Lectures - All listed readings are required
January 12 - Organization and Introductions
January 17 - The Structure of International Conflict and
Robert Jervis, "Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma," World Politics, vol.30., no.2, (1978).
Robert Axelrod, "The Emergence of Cooperation among Egoists." The American Political Science Review, Vol. 75, No. 2 (Jun., 1981), pp. 306-31
January 19- The Causes and Effects of Alliances
Stephen M. Walt, "Alliance Formation and the Balance of World Power," International Security, Vol. 9, No. 4 (Spring, 1985), pp. 3-43
Schweller, Randall, "Bandwagoning for Profit," International Security, vol.19, no. 1, (1994).
Brett Ashley Leeds, "Do Alliances Deter Aggression? The Influence of Military Alliances on the Initiation of Militarized Disputes," American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 47, No. 3 (Jul., 2003), pp. 427-439
January 24 - System Structure
Glenn Snyder. "The Security Dilemma in Alliance Politics," World Politics, Vol. 36, No. 4 (Jul., 1984), pp. 461-495
Paul Huth, Christopher Gelpi, and D. Scott Bennett. 1993. "The Escalation of Great Power Militarized Disputes: Testing Rational Deterrence Theory and Structural Realism." American Political Science Review. 87(3).
Ted Hopf. 1991. "Polarity, the Offense-Defense Balance, and War." American Political Science Review 85(2):476-493.
January 26- Culture and Crisis Bargaining?
Samuel Huntington, "Clash of Civilizations?" Foreign Affairs, 72, 3, (1993):22-49.
Marc Howard Ross, "Internal and External Conflict and Violence: Cross-Cultural Evidence and a New AnalysisInternal and External Conflict and Violence: Cross-Cultural Evidence and a New Analysis," The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 29, No. 4 (Dec., 1985), pp. 547-579
Handbook of War Studies II, Chapter 2.
January 31 - Norms, Institutions and Conflict Resolution
Robert Keohane and Lisa Martin, "The Promise of Institutionalist Theory," International Security, 21, 1, (1995):39-51. (in Project Muse Online)
Jeffrey Legro, "Culture and Preferences in the International Cooperation Two-Step," American Political Science Review, 90, 1 (1996).
Christopher Gelpi, "Crime and Punishment: The Role of Norms in Crisis Bargaining," American Political Science Review, 82 (June 1997).
February 2 - Power Transitions and Arms Races
Handbook of War Studies II, Chapter 5.
James Morrow, "A Twist of Truth: Effects of Arms Races on the Occurrence of War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, 33, 3, (1989)500-529.
Michael Wallace, "Armaments and Escalation," International Studies Quarterly, 26,1, (1982):37-51.
February 7 - Crisis Bargaining
Snyder and Diesing, Conflict Among Nations, Chapter 3: part 1, part 2, part 3.
Handbook of War Studies II, Chapter 9.
February 9 - Conventional Deterrence
Paul Huth, "Extended Deterrence and the Outbreak of War," American Political Science Review, 82, (1988).
Janice Stein, "Deterrence and Reassurance, in Philip Tetlock et al. eds., Behavior Society and Nuclear War, vol. 2., Oxford University Press, New York:NY, (1991), part 1, part 2.
February 14 - Nuclear Deterrence
Bernard Brodie, ed., The Absolute Weapon, Harcourt and Brace, New York:NY, (1946). Chapter 1 and chapter 2.
John Meuller, "The Essential Irrelevance of Nuclear Weapons," in The Cold War and After.
Robert Jervis, "The Political Effects of Nuclear Weapons," in The Cold War and After.
February 16 - Nuclear Proliferation
Kenneth Waltz, "Nuclear Myths and Political Realities," American Political Science Review, 90, 3, (1990).
Scott Sagan, "The Perils of Proliferation", International Security, vol.18, no.4, (1994).
February 21- Economic Causes of War
Richard Rosecrance, The Rise of the Trading State, Basic Books, New York:NY, (1986). Chapter 2 and chapters 6-8.
J. A. Hobson, "Imperialism: A Study," in Harrison M. Wright, ed., The New Imperialism, D.C. Heath and Co., Lexington: MA, (1976).
V.I. Lenin, "Imperialism: The Highest Stage of Capitalism," in Harrison M. Wright, ed., The New Imperialism, D.C. Heath and Co., Lexington: MA, (1976).
February 23 - Diversionary Wars
Christopher Gelpi. 1997. Democratic Diversions. Journal of Conflict Resolution. 41(2)255-282.
Charles Ostrom and Brian Job, "The President and the Political Use of Force," American Politcal Science Review, 80, 2, (1985):541-566
February 28 - State Structure and War
Handbook of War Studies II, Chapter 4.
Jack Snyder, Myths of Empire: Domestic Politics and International Ambition, Cornell University Press, Ithaca:NY, (1993). Chapters 2 and chapter 8.
Stephen Walt, "Revolutions and War," World Politics, vol.44, no.3, (1992).
March 1 - Misperceptions and War
Robert Jervis, "War and Misperception," Journal of Interdisciplinary History, 18, 4, (1988)675-700.
Handbook of War Studies II, Chapter 7.
March 3 through March 11 - SPRING BREAK!
March 13 - REVIEW SESSION FOR MIDTERM
March 15 - MIDTERM EXAM - In Class
March 20 - Evaluating Theories in Political Science
Gary King, Robert Keohane, and Sidney Verba, Designing Social Inquiry, Princeton University Press, Princeton: NJ, (1994). Chapters 1, 3, 4 and 6.
March 22 - World War I (Part I)
Jack Snyder, "Civil-Military Relations and the Cult of the Offensive, 1914 and 1984," in Military Strategy and the Origins of the First World War.
Steven Van Evera, "The Cult of the Offensive and the First World War," in Military Strategy and the Origins of the First World War.
Richard Ned Lebow, Between Peace and War, Chapter 5.
March 27 - World War I (Part II)
Paul Kennedy, "The First World War and the International Power System," International Security, vol.9, no1, (1984).
Scott Sagan, "1914 Revisited: Allies, Offense, and Instability," in Military Strategy and the Origins of the First World War.
Jonathan Shimshoni, "Technology, Military Advantage, and World War I," in Military Strategy and the Origins of the First World War.
March 29 - The Cuban Missile Crisis
Graham Allison, "Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis," American Political Science Review, vol.63, no.3, (1969). part 1, part2.
Alexander George, "The Cuban Missile Crisis," in Avoiding War. Chapter 11.
April 3 - Post-Crisis US-Soviet Relations Over Cuba
Raymond Garthoff, "Handling the Cienfuegos Crisis," International Security, vol.8, no.1, (Summer 1983).
April 5 - The Six Day War
Janice Stein, "The Arab-Israeli War of 1967: Inadvertent War Through Miscalculated Escalation," in Alexander George, Avoiding War. Chapter 8.
Yaacov Bar-Siman-Tov, "The Arab-Israeli War of 1967," in Alexander George, Avoiding War. Chapter 13.
April 10 - The October War
Janice Stein, Psychology and Deterrence, Chapter 3.
Yaacov Bar-Siman-Tov, "The Arab-Israeli War of 1973," in Alexander George, Avoiding War. Chapter 15
April 12 - NO CLASS
April 17 - Creating a New Europe
John Mearsheimer, "Back to the Future," in Sean Lynn-Jones and Steven Miller, eds., The Cold War and After.
Stephen Van Evera, "Primed For Peace," in Sean Lynn-Jones and Steven Miller, eds., The Cold War and After.
Charles A. Kupchan and Clifford A. Kupchan, "Concerts, Collective Security, and Future of Europe," International Security, vol.16, no.1, (1991).
April 19 - Public Opinion and Support for War
John Mueller. 1971. "Trends in Popular Support for the Wars in Korea and Vietnam." American Political Science Review. Vol. 65, No. 2. (Jun., 1971), pp. 358-375
Christopher Gelpi, Peter D. Feaver, and Jason Reifler. 2005/2006. "Casualty Sensitivity and the War in Iraq." International Security (Winter 2005/2006). (in Project Muse Online)
April 24 - Terrorism and Warfare
Bloom, Mia. 2004. "Palestinian Suicide Bombing: Public Support, Market Share, and Outbidding." Political Science Quarterly 119(1) (in Academic OneFile)
Robert A. Pape . 2003. "The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism." American Political Science Review August 2003 v97 i3 p343(19) (in Cambridge Journals Online)
April 30 - Final Paper Due at 9:00 AM. Please submit papers by email. Please use your last name at the beginning of the file that you email!
May 4 - FINAL EXAM in classroom 7:00 PM to 10:00 PM