Political Science 690S
Public Opinion and American Foreign Policy
406 Perkins Library
Tuesday and Thursday 1:25-2:40
Office Hours: Tuesday 3:00-4:00 & Thursday 10:30-11:30
This course will focus on the relationship between American public opinion and U.S. foreign policy. The course is structured around four central questions:
We will address these questions through a review of the literature on American public opinion and foreign policy over the past 50 years. While the course does not require a background in statistics, a substantial proportion of the readings will include description and analysis of quantitative data on American public opinion.
Student performance will be evaluated on the following basis:
1) Most of our time in class will be spent discussing and analyzing the weekly readings, so attendance at and participation in the discussions are essential. Students will also be asked to sign-up to lead the discussion on one set of readings. Class participation (and discussion leadership) will count for 20% of your final grade.
2) During the course of the semester each student must submit two short papers (3-5 double spaced, typed pages). Students will sign up in advance for the weeks that they wish to write short papers. In these papers you are to analyze a particular reading or set of readings for your assigned week. From that reading or set of readings, students should identify an issue that they believe requires further research. Students must then describe the survey data that they would collect in order to study that issue. Papers should identify the population that would be surveyed, the specific question wording that would be used in the survey instrument, and the response options that would be provided to respondents. In addition, students should discuss how they believe the responses to these survey items would help to further our understanding of the issue in the readings that they identified. These two short papers will account for 30% of your grade.
3) The third course requirement is a research paper. This paper should be approximately 15-20 pages. The paper is due on DUE ON MONDAY DECEMBER 10 at 9:00 AM. In these papers students will be expected to conduct an original analysis of American public opinion regarding some foreign policy related issue. Access to public opinion data on a variety of issues will be made available, but students should also feel free to address other issues or other data if they wish. I am willing to help students locate data that are of substantive interest to them. The research paper will account for 50% of your grade.
It is important that students cite the material that they have relied upon in writing these papers. If you have questions about when you need to provide citation for a source, please see the Duke Libraries' guide on avoiding plagaiarism. If you have questions about how to provide citation on your sources, please see the Duke Libraries' guide on citation formats. Use any citation format that you prefer, what is important is that you give credit to the sources you used.
No books are required for purchase for this class. All readings are available online through Duke's full-text databases or on e-reserves. Students can obtain the readings by clicking on the links below. Students must be connected to the Duke network or through the Duke VPN client to download and print the readings.
Schedule of Readings - All listed readings are required
August 28 - Organization
August 30 - No Class (Prof. Gelpi at APSA)
September 4 - Interpreting Survey Questions and Survey Response
Roper, BW. 1984. Are Polls Accurate? Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 472:24-34
Lockerbie B, Borrelli S. 1990. "Question Wording and Public Support for Contra Aid, 1983-1986." Public Opinion Quarterly 54:195-208
Keeter et. al. 2000. "Consequencees of Reducing Non-Response Bias in a National Telephone Survey." Public Opinion Quarterly 64:125-148.
Part I - The Structure of American Public Attitudes Toward Foreign Policy
September 6 - The Almond-Lippmann Consensus
Almond G. 1950. The American People and Foreign Policy . New York: Harcourt Brace. Chapter 4 and Chapter 5
Lippmann W. 1955. Essays in the Public Philosophy . Boston: Little Brown. Chapter 2.
September 11 - Converse and "The Michigan School"
Campbell A, Converse PE, Miller WE, Stokes DE. 1960. The American Voter . New York: John Wiley. Chapter 8 & Chapter 9
Converse PE. 1964. The Nature and Origin of Belief Systems in Mass Publics. in David Apterl ed. pp.206-261. Ideology and Discontent. New York: The Free Press.
September 13 - The Vietnam War and Changing Views of the Public
Verba S, Brody RA, Parker EB, Nie NH, Polsby NW, Ekman P, Black GS. 1967. Public Opinion and the War in Vietnam. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev . 61: 317-333
Caspary WR. 1970. The ‘Mood Theory': A Study of Public Opinion and Foreign Policy. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev . 64: 536-547
Achen CH. 1975. Mass Political Attitudes and the Survey Response. Am Polit. Sci. Rev . 69: 1218-1231
Septebmer 18 - A Stable and Reasonable Public?
Shapiro RY, Page BI, 1988. Foreign Policy and the Rational Public. J. Confl. Res . 32: 211-47
Page, Benjamin I. and Roberty Y. Shapiro. 1982. Changes in Americans' Policy Preferences 1935-1979. Pub. Opin. Quart . 46: 24-42
Nincic M. 1992. A Sensible Public: New Perspectives on Popular Opinion and Foreign Policy. J. Confl Res 36: 772-789
Jentleson B. 1992. "The Pretty Prudent Public: Post Post-Vietnam American Opinion on the Use of Military Force." International Studies Quarterly 36(1):49-73.
September 20 - Individual Variation in Attitudes: Internationalism vs. Isolationism
Nincic, M. 1997. Domestic Costs, the U.S. Public, and the Isolationist Calculus. International Studies Quarterly 41: 593-609
Wittkopf, E. 1986. On the Foreign Policy Beliefs of the American People: A Critique and Some Evidence. International Studies Quarterly 30: 425-445
Holsti, O. 1979. The Three-Headed Eagle: The United States and System Change. International Studies Quarterly 23:339-359
Septebmer 25 - The Structure of Individual Attitudes Toward Foreign Policy
Hurwitz, J, Peffley M. 1987. How Are Foreign Policy Attitudes Structured? A Hierarchical Model. The American Political Science Review. 81:1099-1120
Peffley M, Hurwitz, J. 1993. Models of Attitude Constraint in Foreign Affairs. Political Behavior. 15: 61-90
Herrmann, R, Tetlock P, Visser P. 1999. Mass Public Decisions to Go to War: A Cognitive-Interactionist Framework. The American Political Science Review. 93:553-573
September 27 - Attitudes Toward Trade
Scheve KF, Slaughter MJ. 2001b. “What Determines Individual Trade Policy Preferences?” J. Intl. Econ. 54:267-292. (in Science Direct)
Baker A. 2005. “Who Wants to Globalize? Consumer Tastes and Labor Markets in a Theory of Trade Policy Beliefs.” Am. J. Polit. Sci. 49: 924-938. (in EBSCO Host)
Hermann R, Tetlock P, Visser P. 2001. How Americans Think About Trade: Reconciling Conflicts Among Money, Power, and Principles. International Studies Quarterly 45:191-219 (in Blackwell-Synergy)
Hiscox M. 2006. “Through a Glass and Darkly: Attitudes Towards International Trade and the Curious Effects of Issue Framing.” International Organization 60(3):755-780.
Milner H and D Tingley. 2011. "Who Supports Global Economic Engagement? The Sources of Preferences in American Foreign Economic Policy." International Organization 65(1):37-68.
October 2 - Attitudes Toward Casualties: Vietnam
Mueller J. 1971. Trends in Popular Support for the Wars in Korea and Vietnam. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 65: 358-375
Gartner S, Segura G. 1998. “War Casualties and Public Opinion.” J Confl. Res. 42:278-320.
Schreiber E M. 1976. "Anti-War Demonstrations and American Public Opinion on the War in Vietnam." The British Journal of Sociology 27(2):225-236.
October 4 - Attitudes Toward Casualties: A Vietnam Syndrome?
Sapolsky H, Shapiro J. 1996. “Casualties, Technology, and America's Future Wars.” Parameters 26:119-127. (in Purl (Law Library))Klarevas, L. 2000. The Polls - Trends in the United States Peace Operation in Somalia. Public Opinion Quarterly. 64:523 (in InfoTrac OneFile)
Burk J. 1999. Public Support for Peacekeeping in Lebanon and Somalia: assessing the Casualties Hypothesis. Polit. Sci. Quart . 114: 53-78
Mueller J. 2005. "The Iraq Syndrome." Foreign Affairs 84(6):44-54.
October 9 - Attitudes Toward Casualties: A Reasoning Public?
Gelpi C, Feaver P, Reifler J. 2005/2006. Success Matters: Casualty Sensitivity and the War in Iraq. International Security. Winter 2005/2006.
Gartner S. 2008. "The Multiple Effects of Casualties on Public Support for War: An Experimental Approach." American Political Science Review 102(1):95-106.
Eichenberg RC. 2005. "Victory Has Many Friends: US Public Opinion and the Military Use of Force, 1981-2005." International Security 30(1):140-177.
Part II - Elite Impact on the Formation and Expression of Public Opinion
October 11 - The Expression of Public Attitudes
Zaller J, Feldman S. 1992. A simple theory of the survey response: answering questions versus revealing preferences. American Journal of Political Science August 36:579-617
Zaller J. 1991. Information, Values, and Opinion. The American Political Science Review 85:1215-1237
Berinsky A. 2007. "Assuming theCosts of War: Events, Elites, and American Public Support for Military Conflict." Journal of Politics 69(4):975-997.
October 16 - No Class (Fall Break)
October 18 - Agenda Setting, Priming and Framing
Krosnick JA, Kinder DR. 1990. Altering the Foundations of Support for the President Through Priming. Am. Polit. Sci Rev . 84: 497-512
Berinsky A, Kinder D. 2006. Making Sense of Issues Through Media Frames: Understanding the Kosovo Crisis. Journal of Politics.
Iyengar S, Simon A. 1993. News coverage of the Gulf crisis and public opinion: a study of agenda-setting, priming, and framing. Communication Research 20:365-384
October 23 - Media Coverage and Pubic Opinion
Entman, R. 1989. How the Media Affect What People Think: An Information Processing Approach. The Journal of Politics. 51:347-370
Groeling T, Kernell S. 1998. Is Network News Coverage of the President Biased? The Journal of Politics. 60:1063-1087
Baum & Groeling Costly Media signals
October 25 - Media Coverage and Public Opinion II
Aday S, Cluverius J, Livingston S. 2005. As goes the statue, so goes the war: the emergence of the victory frame in television coverage of the Iraq war. Journal of Broadcasting & Electronic Media. 49:314-332 (in InfoTrac OneFile)
Allen B, O'Loughlin P, Jasperson A, Sullivan J. 1994. The Media and the Gulf War: Framing, Priming, and the Spiral of Silence. Polity 27:255-284
Mermin J. 1997. Television News and American Intervention in Somalia: The Myth of a Media-Driven Foreign Policy. Political Science Quarterly 112:385-403
Baum M and T Groeling. 2010. "Reality Asserts Itself: Public Opinion on Iraq and the Elasticity of Reality." International Organization 64(3):443-479.
October 30 - Public Opinion and Images of War
Graber D. 1990. "Seeing is Remembering: How Visuals Contribute to Learning from Television News." Journal of Communication 40(3):134-156.
Gartner S. 2011. "On Behalf of a Grateful Nation: Conventionalized Images of Loss and Individual Opinion Change in War." International Studies Quarterly 55(2):545-561.
Gelpi C, L Roselle and B Barnett. 2011. "Polarizing Patriots: Divergent Responses to Patriotic Imagery in News Coverage of Terrorism." Unpublished Manuscript.
Part III - Foreign Affairs and Electoral Choice
November 1 - Foreign Policy and the Electoral Connection?
Stokes DE. 1966. Some Dynamic Elements of Contests for the Presidency. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 60: 19-28
Page BI, Brody RA. 1972. Policy Voting and the Electoral Process. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev . 66: 979-95
Aldrich JH. 1977. Electoral Choice in 1972: A Test of Some Theorems of the Spatial Model of Electoral Competition . J Mathematical Soc . 5: 215-237
November 6 - Foreign Policy and Elections Revisited
Aldrich JH, Sullivan JL, Bordiga E. 1989. Foreign Affairs and Issue Voting: Do Presidential Candidates Waltz Before A Blind Audience? Am Polit Sci Rev. 81: 123-141.
Anand, S and J A Krosnick. 2003. “The impact of attitudes toward foreign policy goals on public preferences among presidential candidates: A study of issue publics and the attentive public in the 2000 U.S. Presidential election.” Presidential Studies Quarterly , 33, 31-71. (in InfoTrac Onefile)
Nincic M, Hinkley B. Foreign Policy and the Evaluation of Presidential Candidates. The Journal of Conflict Resolution 35:333-355
November 8 - The Iraq War and the 2004 Election
Gelpi C, Reifler J, Feaver, P. 2007. Iraq the Vote: Retrospective and Prospective Foreign Policy Judgments on Candidate Choice and Casualty Tolerance." Political Behavior 29(2):151-174 .
Karol D, Miguel E. 2005. "The Electoral Cost of War: Iraq War Casualties and the 2004 US Presidential Election." Journal of Politics 69(3):633-648.
Norpoth H., Sidman A. 2007. "Mission Accomplished: The Wartime Election of 2004." Political Behavior 29(2):175-195.
Hillygus DS, Shields T. 2005. "Moral Issues and Voter Decision Making in the 2004 Presidential Election." PS: Political Science and Politics 38(2):201-209.
Part IV - The Policy Impact of Public Opinion
November 13 - Does the Public Guide Foreign Policy?
Sobel R. 2001. The Impact of Public Opinion on U.S. Foreign Policy Since Vietnam . New York: Oxford University Press. Chapter 9
Baum, M. 2004. How public opinion constrains the use of force: the case of operation restore hope. Presidential Studies Quarterly 34:187-227 (in InfoTrac Onefile)
Powlick P, Katz A. 1998. Defining the American Public Opinion/Foreign Policy Nexus. Mershon International Studies Review 42:29-61
Monroe AD. 1998. "Public Opinion and Public Policy, 1980-1993." Public Opinion Quarterly 62(1):6-28.
November 15 - Leading or Following? Presidential Responses to Public Opinion
Foyle D. 2004. Leading the Public To War? The Influence of American Public Opinion on the Bush Administration's Decision to go to War in Iraq. International Journal of Public Opinion Research Annual 16:269-295 (in InfoTrac Onefile)
Jacobs L, Shapiro R. 1995. The Rise of Presidential Polling: The Nixon White House in Historical Perspective. The Public Opinion Quarterly 59: 163-195
Gershkoff A and Kushner S. 2005. "Shaping Public Opinion: The 9/11-Iraq Connection in the Bush Administration's Rhetoric." Perspectives on Politics 3:525-553.
November 20 - Elite Understandings of Public Opinion
Powlick P. 1991. The Attitudinal Bases for Responsiveness to Public Opinion among American Foreign Policy Officials. The Journal of Conflict Resolution 35: 611-641 1995 ISQ Article instead
Steven Kull, I.M. Destler. 1999. Misreading the Public: The Myth of the New Isolationsim Chapters 2 & 7 (In NetLibarary)
November 27 - From the Outside Looking In: Global Public Opinion and the United States
Chiozza G. 2009. "A Crisis Like No Other? Anti-Americanism at the Time of the Iraq War." European Journal of International Relations 15(2):257-289.
Tai CS, Peterson EJ, and Gurr TR. 1973. "Internal Versus External Sources of Anti-Americanism: Two Comparative Studies." Journal of Conflict Resolution 17(3):455-488.
Datta MN. 2009. "The Decline of America's Soft Power in the United Nations." International Studies Perspectives 10(3):265-284.
Gentzkow MA and Shapiro JM. 2004. "Media, Education, and Anti-Americanism in the Muslim World." Journal of Economic Perspectives 18(3)117-133.
November 29 - Public Opinion and International Relations Theory: Diversionary War & the Democratic Peace
Brule DJ, Marshall BW, and Prins BC. 2010. "Opportunities and Presidential Uses of Force: A Selection Model of Crisis Decision-Making." Conflict Management and Peace Science 27(5):486-510.
Oneal JR, and Bryan AL. "The Rally 'Round the Flag effect in US Foreign Policy Crises, 1950-1985." Political Behavior 17(4):379-401.
Bueno de Mesquita B, Morrow J, Siversion R, Smith A. 1999. "An Institutional Explanation of the Democratic Peace". The American Political Science Review 93:791-807.
Tomz M. 2005. "Domestic Audience Costs in International Relations: An Experimental Approach." International Organization 61(4):821-840. Unpublished Manuscript
December 10 - Research Design Papers Due at 9:00 AM