Decision Analysis Reading List
A Decision Analysis Reading List from Making Hard Decisions
by Robert T. Clemen (Duxbury 1995, reproduced with permission):
- Max Bazerman and Margaret Neale (1992) Negotiating Rationally.
New York: Free Press. An introduction to behavioral aspects of
negotiation, written at a slightly lower level than the companion
volume by Neale and Bazerman. Taking a decision-analysis perspective,
the authors also emphsize prescriptive advise for negotiators.
- Derek Bunn (1984) Applied Decision Analysis. New York:
McGraw-Hill. An excellent book written at about the same level
as this one, although more theoretical and somewhat more terse.
- Robyn Dawes (1988) Rational Choice in an Uncertain World.
San Diego, CA: Harcourt Brace. An easy-to-read introduction to
the behavioral issues in decision analysis.
- Simon French (1986) Decision Theory: An Introduction to
the Mathematics of Rationality. London: Wiley. If you liked
the chapter on utility axioms, you would love this book. The text
covers a lot of new material, including consensus, group decisions,
and non-Bayesian approaches. The problems are good, tending to
be technical and theoretical rather than applied.
- Robin M. Hogarth (1987) Judgment and Choice, 2nd ed.
New York: Wiley. An excellent introduction to behavioral decision
analysis from a psychological perspective. This book covers a
broad range of topics and is very easy to read.
- Ronald A. Howard and James Matheson (eds.) (1983) The Principles
and Applications of Decision Analysis (2 volumes). Palo Alto,
CA: Strategic Decisions Group. Since the early 1960's, Ron Howard
has been practicing decision analysis and teaching the principles
to students in the Engineering-Economic Systems Department of
Stanford University. The two-volume set contains many papers presenting
the principles and techniques that make up the "Stanford
School" of decision analysis.
- Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky (1982) Judgment
Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press. A reader filled with classic articles on behavioral
- Ralph Keeney (1992) Value-Focused Thinking: A Path to Creative
Decision Making. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
As you know by now, this book provides all the details on understanding
one's objectives and using them as a basis for decision-analysis
models and improved decision making.
- Ralph Keeney and Howard Raiffa (1976) Decisions with Multiple
Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs. New York: Wiley.
This is the standard reference for multiattribute utility
theory, although it also is good for decision analysis in general.
Many applications are described. Much of the material is highly
technical, although the mathematics are not difficult. Gems of
insight and explanation are scattered through the technical material.
Unfortunately, no problems are included.
- Dennis V. Lindley (1985) Making Decisions, 2nd ed.
New York: Wiley. A classic by a founder in the field. Professor
Lindley explains difficult concepts well. The problems tend to
be somewhat abstract.
- M. Granger Morgan and Max Henrion (1990) Uncertainty: A
Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy
Analysis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. The authors
provide an in-depth treatment of the use of uncertainty for risk
analysis. Especially good in the elicitation and use of expert
- Margaret Neale and Max Bazerman (1991) Cognition and Rationality
in Negotiation. New York: Free Press. An excellent summary
of behavioral issues in negotiation and group decision making.
Many of the results are closely related to parallel results in
individual decision making.
- Scott Plous (1993) The Psychology of Judgment and Decision
Making. New York: McGraw-Hill. The best up-to-date summary
of behavioral decision making.
- Howard Raiffa (1968) Decision Analysis. Reading, MA:
Addison-Wesley. Professor Raiffa also is a founder of decision
analysis, and like Lindley, he explains the material well. The
problems tend to be abstract. The text covers the basics (and
then some)and is still worthwhile after almost 20 years.
- Howard Raiffa (1982) The Art and Science of Negotiation.
Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press. Raiffa discusses negotiations from
a decision-theoretic point of view. A well-written (and easy-to-read)
book that provides deep insights and top-flight analytical tools.
- Detlof von Winterfeldt and Ward Edwards (1986) Decision
Analysis and Behavioral Research. Cambridge: Cambridge University
Press. An up-to-date and in-depth treatment of decision analysis
from a behavioral perspective. Professor Edwards has been involved
in decision analysis since its beginnings, and his history (Chapter
14) is an eye-opener. The authors have a strong slant towards
applications and behavioral research that provides evidence on
the applicability of decision-analysis tools. Like Keeney and
Raiffa, there are no problems.
- Robert L. Winkler (1972) Introduction to Bayesian Inference
and Decision. New York: Holt. An excellent introduction to
decision Theory. Professor Winkler is especially interested in
Bayesian models of information, and the book is slanted more toward
inference and statistics than toward applied decision analysis.