TABLE 4: TIME-SERIES CROSS-SECTIONAL VOLATILITY PREDICTION

Credit Risk Volatility Models

Full Sample

ModelInterceptSlopeR-Square
T-StatT-Stat

Linear0.1319-0.000810.91%
27.23-11.74
Log0.2549-0.043411.08%
17.00-11.84
Risk0.06190.017910.38%
27.9111.42

Split Sample

ModelInterceptE SlopeD Slope
T-StatT-StatT-Stat

Linear0.1216-0.0005-0.0007
18.30-3.71-8.67
Log0.2034-0.0285-0.0323
9.11-4.71-6.35
Risk0.06710.0161-0.0109
21.319.17-0.87

Note: All regressions are time series cross-sectional and arebased on semi-annual observations of US dollar total return.


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