"Recovering Expectations of Consumption Growth from an Equilibrium Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates", University of Chicago, December 1986. Committee: Eugene F. Fama (Chair), Wayne E. Ferson, Robert Stambaugh, Merton H. Miller, Shmuel Kandel and Lars P. Hansen. View PDF.
Publications
"The Real Term Structure and Consumption Growth,"
Journal of Financial Economics 22 (1988): 305-334.
(P1)
View PDF, 2.8mb.
"Forecasting Economic Growth with the Bond and Stock Markets,"
Financial Analysts Journal, September/October
(1989): 38-45. ( P2)
View PDF, 0.9mb.
"Time-Varying Conditional Covariances in Tests of Asset Pricing
Models," Journal of Financial Economics 24 (1989):
289-317. (P3)
View PDF, 2.4mb.
"Bayesian Inference in Asset Pricing Tests," with Guofu Zhou,
Journal of Financial Economics 26 (1990): 221-254.
(P4)
View PDF, 2.6mb.
"The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," with Wayne Ferson,
Journal of Political Economy 99 (1991): 285-315.
(P5)
View PDF, 4.1mb.
"The Term Structure and World Economic Growth," Journal of
Fixed Income 1 (1991): 4-17.
(P6)
View PDF, 1.9mb.
"Sources of Predictability in Portfolio Returns," with Wayne Ferson,
Financial Analysts Journal May/June (1991): 49-56.
(P7)
View PDF, 1.1mb.
"Les Taux d'Intérêt et la Croissance Economique en
France," Analyse Financière 86 (1991): 97-103.
(P8)
View PDF, 1.2mb.
"S & P 100 Index Option Volatility," with Robert Whaley,
Journal of Finance 46 (1991): 1551-1561.
(P9)
View PDF, 1.4mb.
"The World Price of Covariance Risk," Journal of
Finance 46 (1991): 111-157.
(P10)
View PDF, 4.5mb.
"Volatility in the Foreign Currency Futures Market," with Roger Huang,
Review of Financial Studies 4 (1991): 543-569.
(P11)
View PDF, 2.7mb.
"Interest Rate Based Forecasts of German Economic Growth,"
Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 127 (1991): 701-718.
(P12)
View PDF, 1.6mb.
"Dividends and S&P 100 Index Option Valuation," with Robert Whaley,
Journal of Futures Markets 12 (1992): 123-137.
(P13)
View PDF, 1.5mb.
"Information and Volatility in the FX Market," with Roger Huang,
Finanzmarkt und Portfolio Management 6 (1992): 14-22.
(P14)
View PDF, 1.4mb.
"Seasonality and Consumption-Based Asset Pricing," with Wayne
Ferson, Journal of Finance 47 (1992): 511-552.
(P15)
View PDF, 4.3mb.
"Market Volatility Prediction and the Efficiency of the S&P
100 Index Option Market," with Robert Whaley, Journal of
Financial Economics 31 (1992): 43-73.
(P16)
View PDF, 3.2mb.
"Explaining the Predictability in Asset Returns," with Wayne Ferson,
Research in Finance 11 (1993): 65-106.
(P17)
View PDF, 3.8mb.
"The Term Structure Forecasts Economic Growth,"
Financial Analysts Journal May/June (1993): 6-8.
(P18)
View PDF, 0.7mb.
"Seasonality and Heteroskedasticity in Consumption-Based
Asset Pricing: An Analysis of Linear Models," with Wayne Ferson,
Research in Finance 11 (1993): 1-35.
(P19)
View PDF, 3.3mb.
"International Asset Pricing with Alternative Distributional
Specifications," with Guofu Zhou, Journal of Empirical
Finance 1 (1993): 107-131.
(P20)
View PDF, 2.3mb.
"The Risk and Predictability of International Equity Returns,"
with Wayne Ferson, Review of Financial Studies 6 (1993)
527- 566. (P21)
View PDF, 4.1mb.
"Strategic Treasury Debt Management in Public Policy," Policy
Studies, Review 12 (1993): 76-89.
(P22)
View PDF, 1.3mb.
"National Risk and Global Fixed Income Allocation," with Claude
Erb and Tadas Viskanta, Journal of Fixed Income (Sept
1994): 17--26. (P23)
View PDF, 1.3mb.
"Sources of Risk and Expected Returns in Global Equity Markets,"
with Wayne Ferson, Journal of Banking and Finance (1994):
775-803. (P24)
View PDF, 2.6mb.
Also published as NBER working paper 4622.
"Economic Activity Measures in Nonlinear Asset Pricing,"
Advances in Financial Economics (1995): 123-154.
(P25)
View PDF, 2.2mb.
"Country Credit Risk and Global Portfolio Selection," with
Claude Erb and Tadas Viskanta, Journal of Portfolio
Management (Winter 1995): 74-83.
(P26)
View PDF, 1.2mb.
"Forecasting International Equity Correlations," with Claude Erb
and Tadas Viskanta, Financial Analysts Journal (1994):
November/December 32-45. (P27)
View PDF, 1.9mb.
"Do World Markets Still Serve as a Hedge?," with Claude Erb and
Tadas Viskanta, Journal of Investing (1995): Fall 23-46.
(P28)
View PDF, 2.1mb.
"The Cross-Section of Volatility and Autocorrelation in Emerging
Markets" Finanzmarkt und Portfolio Management 9 (1995):
12-34. (P29)
View PDF, 2.8mb.
"The Risk Exposure of Emerging Equity Markets," World Bank
Economic Review (1995): 19-50.
(P30)
View PDF, 2.7mb.
"Predictability and Time-Varying Risk in World Equity Markets,"
with Wayne Ferson, Research in Finance 13 (1995): 25-88.
(P31)
View PDF, 4.7mb.
"Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," Review
of Financial Studies (1995): 773-816.
(P32)
View PDF, 3.4mb.
Also published as NBER working paper 4621.
"Time-Varying World Market Integration," with Geert
Bekaert, Journal of Finance(1995): 403-444. [Lead
Article] (P33)
View PDF, 4.3mb.
Also published as NBER working paper 4843.
"Inflation and World Equity Selection," with Claude Erb and
Tadas Viskanta, Financial Analysts Journal, (1995):
November-December, 28-42. (P34)
View PDF, 2.0mb.
Also in Japanese, Security Analysts Journal (1996):
Part I, October, 45-61; Part II, November, 84-90. (P34J)
"The Relation Between the Term Structure of Interest Rates and Canadian
Economic Growth," Canadian Journal of Economics
(1997): 30:1, February, 169-193. (P35)
View PDF, 2.4mb.
"Expected Returns and Volatility in 135 Countries" with Claude Erb and
Tadas Viskanta, Journal of Portfolio Management
Spring 1996, pp. 46-58. (P36)
View PDF, 1.5mb.
"Market Timing Ability and Volatility Implied in Investment
Newsletters' Asset Allocation Recommendations," with John
Graham, Journal of Financial Economics (1996):
397-422. (P37)
View PDF, 2.2mb.
Also published as NBER working paper 4890.
"Political Risk, Financial Risk and Economic Risk," with Claude
Erb and Tadas Viskanta, Financial Analysts Journal
(1996): November/December 52:6, 28-46. (P38) [prev. W23]
View PDF, 2.0mb.
Also in Japanese, Security Analysts Journal (1998):1
Part I, 109-119; (1998):2 Part II, 84-95. (P38J)
"The Influence of Political, Economic and Financial Risk on
Expected Fixed Income Returns," with Claude Erb and Tadas
Viskanta, Journal of Fixed Income (1996):
June 6:1, 7-31 [Lead article]. (P39)
[prev. W24]
View PDF, 2.5mb.
"Emerging Equity Market Volatility," with Geert Bekaert,
Journal of Financial Economics (1997): 43:1, January, 29-78. (P40)
[prev. W14]
View PDF
Also published as NBER working paper 5307.
"Demographics and International Investment," with Claude Erb and
Tadas Viskanta, Financial Analysts Journal (1997):
July/August, Vol. 53:4, 14-28.(P41)[prev. W27]
View PDF, 1.7mb.
"The Making of an Emerging Market," with Claude Erb and Tadas Viskanta,
Emerging Markets Quarterly (1997) 1:1 14-19. (P43)
View PDF, 0.7mb.
"Grading the Performance of Market Timing Newsletters," with
John Graham, Financial Analysts Journal November/December Vol 53:6,
54-66. (P44)[prev. W26]
View PDF, 1.8mb.
"What Matters for Emerging Market Investment," with Geert Bekaert, Claude B. Erb and
Tadas E. Viskanta, Emerging Markets Quarterly (1997) 1:2, 17-46.
(P45)
View PDF, 4.2mb.
"Distributional Characteristics of Emerging Market Returns and Asset Allocation," with
Geert Bekaert, Claude B. Erb and Tadas E. Viskanta, Journal of Portfolio
Management (1998), Winter, 102-116. (P46)
View PDF, 1.7mb.
"Measurement Error and Nonlinearity in the Earnings-Returns Relation of Large Firms,"
with Messod Beneish, Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting,
(1998), 11, 219-247. [Lead article.] (P47) [prev. W4]
View PDF, 3.0mb.
"Emerging/Developed Market Portfolio Mixes," with Stefano M. F. G.
Cavaglia, Magnus Dahlquist, Peter L. Rathjens and Jarrod W.
Wilcox. Emerging Markets Quarterly (1997), Winter, 47-62. (P48)
[prev. W29]
View PDF, 1.9mb.
"The Future of Investment in Emerging Markets" NBER Reporter,
Summer 1998, pp. 5-8. (P49)
View PDF, 1.5mb.
"Risk in Emerging Markets" with Claude B. Erb and Tadas E. Viskanta, The Financial Survey,
1998, July/August, pp.42-46. (P50) [prev. W41]
View PDF, 0.8mb.
"Contagion and Risk" with Claude Erb and Tadas Viskanta, in Emerging Markets Quarterly 2,
Summer 1998, pp. 46-64. (P51) [prev. W42]
View PDF, 2.6mb.
"A New Perspective on Emerging Market Bonds," with Claude Erb and Tadas
Viskanta, Journal of Portfolio Management 1999, 83-92.
(P52) [prev. W36]
View PDF, 1.2mb.
"Stock Selection in Emerging Markets: Portfolio Strategies for Malaysia,
Mexico and South Africa" with Dana Achour, Greg Hopkins and Clive Lang,
Emerging Markets Quarterly 1999, Winter, 38-91.
(P53)
View PDF, 6.4mb.
"Autoregressive Conditional Skewness," with Akhtar Siddique, Journal of Financial
and Quantitative Analysis 34, 4, 1999, 465-488.
(P54) [prev. W22]
View PDF, X.Xmb.
"Stock Selection in Malaysia" with Dana Achour, Greg Hopkins and Clive Lang,
Emerging Markets Quarterly 1999, Spring, 54-91
(P55)
View PDF, 5.5mb.
"Conditional Skewness in Asset Pricing Tests," with Akhtar Siddique,
Journal of Finance 55, June 2000, 1263-1295.
(P56) [prev. W17]
View PDF, 1.0mb.
Reprinted in, Asset Pricing Theory and Tests, R. Grauer (ed.), Edward Elgar, 2002 forthcoming.
"Conditioning Variables and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns,"
with Wayne Ferson, Journal of Finance 1999, 54 1325-1360.
(P57) [prev. W32]
View PDF, 0.2mb.
Also published as NBER working paper 7009.
"Capital Markets: An Engine for Economic Growth," with Geert Bekaert,
Brown Journal of World Affairs 5:1 (Winter/Spring), 1998, 33-53.
(P58)[prev. W21]
View PDF, 1.9mb.
"Brazil in Crisis" with Chris Lundblad and Diego Valderrama,
Emerging Markets Quarterly 1999, Spring, 4-9.
(P59)
View PDF, 1.0mb.
"Efficient Online Non-Parametric Density Estimation," with Christophe
G. Lambert, Scott E. Harrington, Nathan D. Bronson and Arman Glodjo.
Algorithmica 1999, forthcoming
(P60)[prev. W28]
View PDF, 1.8mb.
"Forecasting emerging market returns using neural networks: A comparative study of
nine emerging markets," with Kirsten E. Travers and Michael J. Costa,
Emerging Markets Quarterly 2000, 4:2, 43-54 (P61) [prev. W44]
View PDF, 1.7mb.
"Economic, Financial and Fundamental Global Risk In and Out of the EMU,"
with Wayne Ferson, Swedish Economic Policy Review 6, 123-184
(P62) [prev. W40]
View PDF, 2.1mb.
Also published as NBER working paper 6967.
"The theory and practice of corporate finance: Evidence from the field," with
John Graham, Journal of Financial Economics 2001, 60, 187-243. (P67) [prev. W45] View PDF . View PDF, 0.2mb Final working paper version, September 8, 2000.
"The Specification of Conditional Expectations," (previous
title: "Is the Expected Compensation for Market Volatility
Constant?") Journal of
Empirical Finance 8, 5, 2001, 573-638. (P74) [prev W6]
View PDF.View PDF of last working paper version, 1.7mb
"How do CFOs make capital budgeting and capital structure decisions?," with John Graham, Journal of Applied Corporate Finance 15:1, 2002, 8-23.
(P76) [prev. W62]
View PDF of final working paper, .3mb,
View Galley.
"Market Integration and Contagion," with Geert Bekaert and Angela Ng, Journal of Business 2003, forthcoming. (P77) [prev. W59]
View PDF of final working paper, 0.4mb, View PDF [Not yet available].
"Public Information and Fixed Income Volatility," with Roger Huang.
(W2)
View PDF, 2.3mb
"Global Risk Exposure to a Trade-Weighted
Currency Index," (W10)
View PDF, 5.8mb
"Forecasting Foreign Exchange Market Returns via Entropy Based
Coding: The Framework," with Arman Glodjo.
(W13)
View PDF, 2.6mb
"Analytic Tests of Linear Factor Models," with Chris Kirby.
(W18)
View PDF, 3.2mb
"Performance Evaluation in the Presence of Dynamic Trading
Strategies," with Ravi Bansal and Magnus Dahlquist.
(W19)
View PDF, 3.2mb
"The International Cost of Capital and Risk Calculator,"
(W35)
View PDF, 1.2mb
"Promotion or demotion? An empirical investigation of the determinants of top mutual fund
manager change," with Alastair R. Hall and Fan Hu, (W50)
View PDF, xxxmb
"The cross-section of expected risk exposure," with Akhtar Siddique, (W51)
View PDF, xxxmb
"The effect of capital structure when expected agency costs are extreme," with Karl Lins and
Andrew Roper, (W55)
View PDF, 0.4mb
"Does Financial Liberalization Spur Growth," with Geert Bekaert and Christian Lundblad, (W56)
View PDF, 0.4mb
"Expectations of equity risk premia, volatility and asymmetry from a corporate finance perspective," with John Graham (W58)
View PDF, 0.4mb.
"Growth Volatility and Equity Market Liberalization," with Geert Bekaert and Chris Lundblad, (W60)
View PDF, 0.4mb.
"Emerging Markets Finance," with Geert Bekaert, (W65)
View PDF, .3mb.
"Large Scale Privatization and the Dynamics of Emerging Equity Markets," with Geert Bekaert and Andrew Roper. (W66)
View PDF, .3mb.
"Liquidity and Expected Returns:
Lessons from Emerging Markets," with Geert Bekaert and Chris Lundblad, (W67)
View PDF, 0.4mb.
"Equity Market Liberalization
in Emerging Markets," with Geert Bekaert and Chris Lundblad, (W68)
View PDF, 0.4mb.
"Portfolio Selection with Higher Moments" with Merrill Liechty, John Liechty and Peter Muller, (W70) View PDF, 1mb.
Books, Chapters, Monographs
"An Exploratory Investigation of the Fundamental Determinants
of National Equity Market Returns," with Wayne Ferson, in Jeffrey
Frankel, Editor, The Internationalization of Equity
Markets, (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1994,
pp. 59-138). (C1)
View PDF, 6.3mb
Also published as NBER working paper 4595.
"Portfolio Enhancement using Emerging Markets and Conditioning
Information," in Stijn Claessens and Shan Gooptu, Eds.,
Portfolio Investment in Developing Countries,
(Washington: The World Bank Discussion Series, 1993, pp. 110-144).
(C2)
View PDF last working paper version, 2.1mb,
View PDF,, 3.8mb
"The World Price of Covariance Risk," in Stanley Stansell, Editor,
International Financial Market Integration, (London: Basil
Blackwell, 1993, pp. 187-234). (C3)
"la Capacità Previsiva della Struttura per Scadenza dei
Tassi d'Interesse Italiani in Relazione alla Crescita
Economica Reale," with Sidhartha Kaul and Chris M. Kirby,
Serie Economica, 1990, CRF Gruppo IMI.
(C4)
View PDF, 1.6mb
"The Contribution of Speculators to Effective Financial Markets,"
with Geert Bekaert and Márcio G.P. Garcia, Catalyst
Monograph Series, 1995, Catalyst Institute.
(C5)
View PDF, 4.8mb
"The Role of Capital Markets in Economic Growth," with Geert
Bekaert and Márcio G.P. Garcia, Catalyst Monograph
Series, 1995, Catalyst Institute.
(C6)
View PDF, 4.9mb
"Capital Markets: An Engine for Economic Growth," with Geert
Bekaert, Catalyst Monograph Series, 1995, Catalyst
Institute. (C7)
View PDF, 3.3mb
"Instrumental Variables Estimation of Conditional Beta Pricing
Models," with Christopher Kirby, Handbook of
Statistics 14, G.S. Maddala, C.R. Rao and
H.D. Vinod, Eds., North Holland,
1996, 35-60. (C8)
View PDF, 2.5
"The Risk Exposure of Emerging Equity Markets," in Investing
in Emerging Markets Mike J. Howell, Ed., London, 1994, pp.
116-174. [Expanded version of W30]. (C9)
View PDF, 4.9mb
"The Behavior of Emerging Market Returns," with Geert Bekaert,
Claude Erb and Tadas Viskanta, in The Future of Emerging
Market Capital Flows, in Richard Levich (ed.), Boston:
Kluwer Academic Publishers), 1998, Chapter 5, 107-173.
(C10) [prev. W25]
View PDF, 4.4mb
"The Cross-Sectional Determinants of Emerging Equity Market Returns,"
with Geert Bekaert, Claude Erb and Tadas Viskanta, in
Peter Carman, ed.,
Quantitative Investing ofr the Global Markets: Strategies,
Tactics, and Advanced Analytical Techniques, 1997,
(Chicago: Glenlake Publishing), 221-272. (C11)
View PDF, 4.4mb
"The Risk and Expected Returns of African Equity Investments," with
Claude Erb and Tadas Viskanta, in Paul Collier and Cathy Pattillo, Eds., Investment
and Risk in Africa, (MacMillan), 2000, 122-145. (C12) [prev. W30]
View PDF of last working paper version, 2.1mb,
View PDF, 2.1mb
"Capital Flows and the Behavior of Emerging Market
Equity Returns," with Geert Bekaert, in Sebastian Edwards, Capital Inflows to Emerging Markets
NBER and University of Chicago Press, 2000, 159-194. (C14) [prev. W37]
View PDF of last working paper version.
Also published as NBER working paper 6669.
View PDF.
"Forecasting emerging market returns using neutral networks," with Kirsten E. Travers and
Michael J. Costa, in Institutional Investor's,
Financial Technology,
June 1999, 25-36. (C15)
View PDF, 1.1mb
"The variation of economic risk premiums," with Wayne E. Ferson, in Robert Korajczyk, Ed.,
Asset pricing and portfolio performance: Models, strategy and performance
metrics,
1999, London: Risk Books. (C16)
View PDF, 3.8mb
"The Asian Bet,"
with Andrew Roper, in Alison Harwood, Robert E. Litan and Michael Pomerleano, Eds.,
The Crisis in Emerging Financial Markets, Brookings Institution Press, 1999, pp. 29-115.
(C17)[prev. W43].
View PDF.
View PDF of last working paper version, 0.8mb
"Glossary of Equity Related Terms," in Reuters Financial Training Series,
An Introduction to Equity Markets, John Willey and Sons, Singapore,
1999.
(C18)
View PDF.
"New Perspectives on Emerging Market Bonds," in G. Philippatos and G. Koutmos, eds.,
International Securities, Edward Elgar Publishing, UK.
2001. (C19)
View PDF, 1.2mb.
"Glossary," in Brian Bruce, Ed.,
Enhanced Indexing, New Strategies and Techniques for Plan Sponsors,
Fall 2000, New York: Institutional Investor Publishing.
(C21)
View PDF, [not yet available].
"Economic Growth and Financial Liberalization", with Geert Bekaert, in NBER Reporter, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge MA, Spring 2001, 8-11. (C22) View PDF of last working paper version, View PDF
"Glossary," in Brian Bruce, Ed.,
Transactions Costs, A Cutting-Edge Guide to Best Execution,
Spring 2001, New York: Institutional Investor Publishing.
(C23)
View PDF, [not yet available].
The New York Times Dictionary of Money and Investing, 2002, with Gretchen Morganson, New York: Henry Holt and Company and Times Books.
(C24)
View PDF, [not yet available].
"New Perspectives on Emerging Market Bonds," in George Philippatos and Gregory Koutmos, Eds., International Securities, 2001, with Claude Erb and Tadas Viskanta, Edward Elgar, Northampton, MA, forthcoming.
(C25)
View PDF, 1.2mb.
"Glossary," in Adam Leitzes and Joshua Solan,
Bulls, Bears and Brains: Investing with the Best and Brightest of the Financial
Internet, John Wiley and Sons, 2001,
forthcoming
(C26)
View PDF, [not yet available].
"Glossary," in James J. Keenan,
Ignorance is risk!, Cogent Publishing, Boca Raton, FL. 197-204.
forthcoming
(C27)
View PDF, [not yet available].