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Robert T. Clemen

Research Publications

Prava, V., Clemen, R., Hobbs, B., & Kenny, M. (2016) Partition dependence and carryover biases in subjective probability assessment surveys for continuous variables: Model-based estimation and correction. Decision Analysis, 13, 51-67.

Lantos, P., Brinkerhoff, R., Wormser, G., & Clemen, R. (2013) Empiric antibiotic treatment of erythema migrans-like skin lesions as a function of geography: A clinical and cost effectiveness modeling study. Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases, 13, 877-883.

Mendoza, A., & Clemen, R. T. (2013) Outsourcing sustainability efforts: A game-theoretic modeling approach. Environment, Systems, and Decisions 33, 224-236.

Anderson, R., & Clemen, R. T. (2013) Toward an improved methodology to construct and reconcile decision analytic preference judgments. Decision Analysis 10, 121-134.

Page, L., & Clemen, R. T. (2013). Do prediction markets produce well calibrated probability forecasts? The Economic Journal, 123, 491-513.

Clemen, R. T., & Smith, J. (2009). On the choice of baselines in multiattribute portfolio analysis: A cautionary note. Decision Analysis 6 , 256-262.

Poland, B., Hodge, F. L., Khan, A., Clemen, R. T., Wagner, J. A., Dykstra, K., & Krishna, R. (2009). The clinical utility index as a practical multiattribute approach to drug development decisions. Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics. Advance online publication: DOI 10.1038/clpt.2009.71

Clemen, R. T. (2008). Improving and measuring the effectiveness of decision analysis: Linking decision analysis and behavioral decision research. Book chapter, In: T. Kugler, J. C. Smith, T. Connolly, and Y.-J. Son (Eds.) Decision modeling and behavior in complex and uncertain environments . New York : Springer, 3-31.

Clemen, R. T., & Ulu, C. (2008). Interior additivity and subjective probability assessment of continuous variables. Management Science 54 , 835-851.

Clemen, R. T. (2008). Comment on Cooke's Classical Method. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 93, 760-765.

Clemen, R. T., & Winkler, R. L. (2007). Aggregating probability distributions. In: W. Edwards, R. Miles, & D. von Winterfeldt (Eds.) Advances in Decision Analysis .(pp. 154-176. Cambridge , UK : Cambridge University Press. .

Fox, C. R., & Clemen, R. T. (2005). Subjective probability assessment in decision analysis: Partition dependence and bias toward the ignorance prior. Management Science 51 , 1417-1432.

Winkler, R. L., & Clemen, R. T. (2004). Multiple experts vs. multiple methods: Combining correlation assessments. Decision Analysis 1 , 167-176 .

Clemen, R. T. (2002). Incentive contracts and strictly proper scoring rules. Test 11 , 195-217.

Clemen, R. T. (2001). Naturalistic decision making and decision analysis, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 14, 359-361 .

Clemen, R. T., & Kwit, R. (2001). The value of decision analysis at Eastman Kodak Company, 1990-1999. Interfaces 31 (Sept-Oct), 74-92.

Clemen, R. T. (2001). Simple versus complex methods. International Journal of Forecasting 17 , 549-550.

Clemen, R. T., & Lacke, C. J. (2001). Analysis of colorectal cancer screening regimens. Health Care Management Science 4 , 257-267.

Borsuk, M., Clemen, R. T., Maguire, L., & Reckhow, K. (2001). A multiple-criteria Bayes net model of the Neuse River basin. Group Decision and Negotiation 10 , 355-373 .

Clemen, R. T., Fischer, G. W., & Winkler, R. L. (2000). Assessing dependence: Some experimental results. Management Science 46 , 1100-1115.

Sendi, P. P., & Clemen, R. T. (1999). Sensitivity analysis on a chance node with more than two branches. Medical Decision Making 19 , 499-502.

Clemen, R. T., & Winkler, R. L. (1999). Combining probability distributions from experts in risk analysis. Risk Analysis 19 , 187-203.

Clemen, R. T., & Reilly, T. (1999). Correlations and copulas for decision and risk analysis. Management Science 45 , 208-224.

Jouini, M. N., & Clemen, R. T. (1996). Copula models for aggregating expert opinions. Operations Research 44, 444-457.

Clemen, R. T., Jones, S. K., & Winkler, R. L. (1996). Aggregating forecasts: An empirical evaluation of some Bayesian methods. In: D. Berry , K. Chaloner, & J. Geweke (Eds.) Bayesian Statistics and Econometrics: Essays in Honor of Arnold Zellner (pp. 3-13). New York : Wiley.

Clemen, R. T., Murphy, A. H., & Winkler, R. L. (1995). Screening candidate forecasts: Contrasts between choosing and combining. International Journal of Forecasting 11 , 133-146.

Miklas, M., Norwine, J., DeWispelare, A., Herren, L., & Clemen, R. (1995). Future climate at Yucca Mountain, Nevada proposed high-level radioactive waste repository. Global Environmental Change 5 , 221-234.

DeWispelare, A., Herren, L., & Clemen, R. T. (1995). The use of probability elicitation for high-level nuclear waste regulation. International Journal of Forecasting 11 , 5-24.

Frisch, D., & Clemen, R. T. (1994). Beyond expected utility: Rethinking behavioral decision research. Psychological Bulletin 116 , 46-54.

Burns, W. J., & Clemen, R. T. (1993). Covariance structure models and influence diagrams. Management Science 39 , 816-834.

Clemen, R. T. (1993). Comment on 'A randomization rule for selecting forecasts'. Operations Research 41 , 801-802.

Clemen, R. T., & Winkler, R. L. (1993).Aggregating point estimates: A flexible modeling approach. Management Science 39 , 501-515.

Miller, C. M., Clemen, R. T., & Winkler, R. L. (1992). The effect of nonstationarity on combined forecasts. International Journal of Forecasting 7 , 515-529.

Winkler, R. L., & Clemen, R. T. (1992). Sensitivity of weights in combining forecasts. Operations Research 40 , 609-614.

Clemen, R. T., & Winkler, R. L. (1990). Unanimity and compromise among probability forecasters. Management Science 36 , 767-779.

Clemen, R. T., & Murphy, A. H. (1990). The expected value of frequency calibration. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 46 , 102-117.

Clemen, R. T. (1989). Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography (with discussion). International Journal of Forecasting 5 , 559-583.

Clemen, R. T., & Guerard, J. B. (1989). Econometric GNP forecasts: Incremental information relative to naive extrapolation. International Journal of Forecasting 5 , 417-426.

Guerard, J. B., & Clemen, R. T. (1989). Collinearity and the use of latent root regression for combining GNP forecasts. Journal of Forecasting 8 , 231-238.

Murphy, A. H., Chen, Y.-S., & Clemen, R. T. (1988). Statistical analysis of interrelationships between objective and subjective temperature forecasts. Monthly Weather Review 116 , 2121-2131.

Clemen, R. T., & Winkler, R. L. (1987). Calibrating and combining precipitation probability forecasts. In: R. Viertl (Ed.) Probability and Bayesian Statistics (pp. 97-110). New York : Plenum.

Clemen, R. T. (1987). Combining overlapping information. Management Science 33 , 373-380.

Clemen, R. T. (1986). Linear constraints and the efficiency of combined forecasts. Journal of Forecasting 5 , 31-38.

Clemen, R. T., & Murphy, A. H. (1986). Objective and subjective precipitation probability forecasts: Statistical analysis of some interrelationships. Weather and Forecasting 1 , 56-65.

Clemen, R. T., & Murphy, A. H. (1986). Objective and subjective precipitation probability forecasts: Some methods for improving forecast quality. Weather and Forecasting 1 , 213-218.

Clemen, Robert T. (1986). Calibration and the aggregation of probabilities. Management Science 32 , 312-314.

Clemen, R. T., & Winkler, R. L. (1986). Combining economic forecasts. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 4 , 39-46.

Clemen, R. T. (1985). Extraneous expert information. Journal of Forecasting 4 , 329-348.

Clemen, R. T., & R. L. Winkler. (1985). Limits for the precision and value of information from dependent sources. Operations Research 33 , 427-442.

Columns published in the Decision Analysis Society Newsletter:

April, 2001. Assessing 10-50-90s: A Surprise.

March, 2004. Assessing Risk Tolerance.

Although I didn't write this, I find myself sending out occasional copies of George MacKenzie's 1994 dissertation (which I supervised) on how to specify a copula given a set of Spearman rank-correlation coefficients. So here is is:

MacKenzie, George R. (1994) "Approximately maximum-entropy multivariate distributions with specified marginals and pairwise correlations." PhD dissertation, University of Oregon. zip file, 3.1MB