Summary of rules for identifying ARIMA models

Identifying the order of differencing and the constant:

• Rule 1: If the series has positive autocorrelations out to a high number of lags, then it probably needs a higher order of differencing.
• Rule 2: If the lag-1 autocorrelation is zero or negative, or the autocorrelations are all small and patternless, then the series does not need a higher order of differencing. If the lag-1 autocorrelation is -0.5 or more negative, the series may be overdifferenced.  BEWARE OF OVERDIFFERENCING!!
• Rule 3: The optimal order of differencing is often the order of differencing at which the standard deviation is lowest.
• Rule 4: A model with no orders of differencing assumes that the original series is stationary (among other things, mean-reverting). A model with one order of differencing assumes that the original series has a constant average trend (e.g. a random walk or SES-type model, with or without growth). A model with two orders of total differencing assumes that the original series has a time-varying trend (e.g. a random trend or LES-type model).
• Rule 5: A model with no orders of differencing normally includes a constant term (which represents the mean of the series). A model with two orders of total differencing normally does not include a constant term. In a model with one order of total differencing, a constant term should be included if the series has a non-zero average trend.

Identifying the numbers of AR and MA terms:

• Rule 6: If the partial autocorrelation function (PACF) of the differenced series displays a sharp cutoff and/or the lag-1 autocorrelation is positive--i.e., if the series appears slightly "underdifferenced"--then consider adding one or more AR terms to the model. The lag beyond which the PACF cuts off is the indicated number of AR terms.
• Rule 7: If the autocorrelation function (ACF) of the differenced series displays a sharp cutoff and/or the lag-1 autocorrelation is negative--i.e., if the series appears slightly "overdifferenced"--then consider adding an MA term to the model. The lag beyond which the ACF cuts off is the indicated number of MA terms.
• Rule 8: It is possible for an AR term and an MA term to cancel each other's effects, so if a mixed AR-MA model seems to fit the data, also try a model with one fewer AR term and one fewer MA term--particularly if the parameter estimates in the original model require more than 10 iterations to converge.
• Rule 9: If there is a unit root in the AR part of the model--i.e., if the sum of the AR coefficients is almost exactly 1--you should reduce the number of AR terms by one and increase the order of differencing by one.
• Rule 10: If there is a unit root in the MA part of the model--i.e., if the sum of the MA coefficients is almost exactly 1--you should reduce the number of MA terms by one and reduce the order of differencing by one.
• Rule 11: If the long-term forecasts appear erratic or unstable, there may be a unit root in the AR or MA coefficients.

Identifying the seasonal part of the model:

• Rule 12: If the series has a strong and consistent seasonal pattern, then you should use an order of seasonal differencing--but never use more than one order of seasonal differencing or more than 2 orders of total differencing (seasonal+nonseasonal).
• Rule 13: If the autocorrelation at the seasonal period is positive, consider adding an SAR term to the model. If the autocorrelation at the seasonal period is negative, consider adding an SMA term to the model. Do not mix SAR and SMA terms in the same model, and avoid using more than one of either kind.