Decision Analysis Reading List

A Decision Analysis Reading List from Making Hard Decisions by Robert T. Clemen (Duxbury 1995, reproduced with permission):

• Max Bazerman and Margaret Neale (1992) Negotiating Rationally. New York: Free Press. An introduction to behavioral aspects of negotiation, written at a slightly lower level than the companion volume by Neale and Bazerman. Taking a decision-analysis perspective, the authors also emphsize prescriptive advise for negotiators.
• Derek Bunn (1984) Applied Decision Analysis. New York: McGraw-Hill. An excellent book written at about the same level as this one, although more theoretical and somewhat more terse. Excellent problems.
• Robyn Dawes (1988) Rational Choice in an Uncertain World. San Diego, CA: Harcourt Brace. An easy-to-read introduction to the behavioral issues in decision analysis.
• Simon French (1986) Decision Theory: An Introduction to the Mathematics of Rationality. London: Wiley. If you liked the chapter on utility axioms, you would love this book. The text covers a lot of new material, including consensus, group decisions, and non-Bayesian approaches. The problems are good, tending to be technical and theoretical rather than applied.
• Robin M. Hogarth (1987) Judgment and Choice, 2nd ed. New York: Wiley. An excellent introduction to behavioral decision analysis from a psychological perspective. This book covers a broad range of topics and is very easy to read.
• Ronald A. Howard and James Matheson (eds.) (1983) The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis (2 volumes). Palo Alto, CA: Strategic Decisions Group. Since the early 1960's, Ron Howard has been practicing decision analysis and teaching the principles to students in the Engineering-Economic Systems Department of Stanford University. The two-volume set contains many papers presenting the principles and techniques that make up the "Stanford School" of decision analysis.
• Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky (1982) Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. A reader filled with classic articles on behavioral decision making.
• Ralph Keeney (1992) Value-Focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decision Making. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. As you know by now, this book provides all the details on understanding one's objectives and using them as a basis for decision-analysis models and improved decision making.
• Ralph Keeney and Howard Raiffa (1976) Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs. New York: Wiley. This is the standard reference for multiattribute utility theory, although it also is good for decision analysis in general. Many applications are described. Much of the material is highly technical, although the mathematics are not difficult. Gems of insight and explanation are scattered through the technical material. Unfortunately, no problems are included.
• Dennis V. Lindley (1985) Making Decisions, 2nd ed. New York: Wiley. A classic by a founder in the field. Professor Lindley explains difficult concepts well. The problems tend to be somewhat abstract.
• M. Granger Morgan and Max Henrion (1990) Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. The authors provide an in-depth treatment of the use of uncertainty for risk analysis. Especially good in the elicitation and use of expert judgment.
• Margaret Neale and Max Bazerman (1991) Cognition and Rationality in Negotiation. New York: Free Press. An excellent summary of behavioral issues in negotiation and group decision making. Many of the results are closely related to parallel results in individual decision making.
• Scott Plous (1993) The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making. New York: McGraw-Hill. The best up-to-date summary of behavioral decision making.
• Howard Raiffa (1968) Decision Analysis. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley. Professor Raiffa also is a founder of decision analysis, and like Lindley, he explains the material well. The problems tend to be abstract. The text covers the basics (and then some)and is still worthwhile after almost 20 years.
• Howard Raiffa (1982) The Art and Science of Negotiation. Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press. Raiffa discusses negotiations from a decision-theoretic point of view. A well-written (and easy-to-read) book that provides deep insights and top-flight analytical tools.
• Detlof von Winterfeldt and Ward Edwards (1986) Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. An up-to-date and in-depth treatment of decision analysis from a behavioral perspective. Professor Edwards has been involved in decision analysis since its beginnings, and his history (Chapter 14) is an eye-opener. The authors have a strong slant towards applications and behavioral research that provides evidence on the applicability of decision-analysis tools. Like Keeney and Raiffa, there are no problems.
• Robert L. Winkler (1972) Introduction to Bayesian Inference and Decision. New York: Holt. An excellent introduction to decision Theory. Professor Winkler is especially interested in Bayesian models of information, and the book is slanted more toward inference and statistics than toward applied decision analysis.