<A HREF="../ordert.htm">Order Copy of Paper</A><P>

The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums

Journal of Political Economy, 99 (1991): 285-315

Wayne E. Ferson

University of Chicago

Campbell R. Harvey

Duke University

This paper provides an analysis of the predictable components of monthly common stock and bond portfolio returns. Most of the predictability is associated with sensitivity to economic variables in a rational asset pricing model with multiple betas. The stock market risk premium is the most important for capturing predictable variation of the stock portfolios, while premiums associated with interest rate risks capture predictability of the bond returns. Time variation in the premium for beta risk is more important than changes in the betas.