Robert Nau

Professor Emeritus

Fuqua School of Business

Duke University

Publications

Book:

Arbitrage and Rational Decisions (Chapman and Hall, 2025)

Edited volume:

• Economic and Environmental Risk and Uncertainty:  New Models and Methods (Springer, 1997)

Papers:

• Risk Neutral Equilibria of Noncooperative Games (Theory and Decision, v. 78, no. 2, 2015)
• Imprecise Probabilities in Noncooperative Games (Electronic proceedings of the Seventh International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications, 2011) Powerpoint slides
• A Theorem for Bayesian Group Decisions (with Ralph Keeney; Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, v. 43, no. 1, 2011)
• Risk, Ambiguity, and State-Preference Theory (Economic Theory, v. 49, no. 1, 2011)
• Duality Between Maximization of Expected Utility and Minimization of Relative Entropy When Probabilities are Imprecise ( Electronic proceedings of the Sixth International Symposium on Imprecise Probabilities and Their Applications, 2009)
• Sensitivity to Distance and Baseline Distributions in Forecast Evaluation (with Victor Richmond Jose and Bob Winkler, Management Science, v. 55, no. 4, 2009
• Scoring Rules, Generalized Entropy, and Utility Maximization (with Victor Richmond Jose and Bob Winkler, Operations Research, v. 56, no. 4, 2008) Spreadsheet example Contour plots
• Extensions of the Subjective Expected Utility Model, in Advances in Decision Analysis, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007, edited by Edwards, Miles, and von Winterfeldt)
• The Shape of Incomplete Preferences (The Annals of Statistics, v. 34, no. 5, 2006) Supplement:  mathematical programs for example
• Uncertainty Aversion With Second-Order Utilities and Probabilities (Management Science, v. 52, no.1, 2006) Proofs of theorems Spreadsheet example
• On the Geometry of Nash Equilibria and Correlated Equilibria (International Journal of Game Theory, v. 32, no. 4, 2004)
• A Generalization Of Pratt-Arrow Measure To Non-Expected-Utility Preferences And Inseparable Probability And Utility (Management Science v.49 n.8, 2003)
• The Aggregation of Imprecise Probabilities (J. Stat. PIanning & Inference v. 105 n.1, 2002)
• De Finetti Was Right:  Probability Does Not Exist (Theory and Decision v. 51 n. 2-4, 2001)
• Uncertainty Aversion with Second-Order Probabilities and Utilities (Electronic proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Imprecise Probabilities and Their Applications, 2001)
• Arbitrage, Incomplete Models, and Other People's Brains (in Beliefs, Interactions, and Preferences in Decision Making, Machina & Munier, eds., Kluwer, 1999)
• Valuing Risky Projects:  Options Pricing  Theory and Decision Analysis (with Jim Smith, Management Science v. 41 n.5, 1995)
• Coherent Decision Analysis with Inseparable Probabilities and Utilities (J. Risk and Uncertainty v. 10, 1995)
• The Incoherence of Agreeing to Disagree (Theory and Decision v. 39, 1995)
• Indeterminate Probabilities on Finite Sets (The Annals of Statistics v. 20 n. 4, 1992)
• Joint Coherence in Games of Incomplete Information (Management Science v. 38 n. 3, 1992)
• Arbitrage, Rationality, and Equilibrium (with Kevin McCardle, Theory and Decision v. 31, 1991)
• Coherent Behavior in Noncooperative Games (with Kevin McCardle, J. Econ. Theory v. 50 n. 2, 1990)
• Decision Analysis with Indeterminate or Incoherent Probabilities (Annals of Operations Research v. 19, 1989)
• Blau's Dilemma Revisited (Management Science v. 33, 1987)
• Should Scoring Rules Be 'Effective'?  (Management Science v. 31, 1985)
• Adaptive Filtering Revisited (J. Operational Research Society v. 30 n. 9, 1979)