Course Software Installation

We will be using two pieces of forecasting software, both of which have features expressly designed for use in this course. You should install them both prior to the first class and try out some of their features.

1. FSBstats+

This is a brand-new Excel add-in that performs descriptive data analysis and multiple regression analysis. You can download it at this link:

https://courses.fuqua.duke.edu/2009/fall1/decision411/files/FSBstats+.xlam

... and here is a set of instructions on how to install and use it, as well as a test file that also provides instructions and which has some sample models already set up for you to play with:

https://courses.fuqua.duke.edu/2009/fall1/decision411/files/FSBstats+ instructions.pdf

https://courses.fuqua.duke.edu/2009/fall1/decision411/files/FSBstats+ test file.xlsx

2. Statgraphics

This is a general-purpose statistical analysis package that has a forecasting procedure we will use for fitting models other than regression models. Here is a handout that describes all its essential features and walks you through a tutorial, and the data file that goes with it:

https://courses.fuqua.duke.edu/2009/fall1/decision411/files/StatgraphicsXV_2009.pdf

https://courses.fuqua.duke.edu/2009/fall1/decision411/files/93cars.sf6

Just take a quick glance through the handout to see what it contains. I'll demonstrate it in class and we will work some exercises that teach you most of what you will need to know.

To download the Duke site-license version of Statgraphics, do not go to the software page on the Duke OIT web site.  Instead, go to this link:

http://www.statpoint.net/GetPassword.aspx

Fill in the requested information including your @duke.edu email address, and hit Submit.  (Important: you must use a duke e-mail address ending in @duke.edu.) You should see a message saying:  “The STATGRAPHICS Download Username and Password has been sent to you at: <yourname>@duke.edu”

Next go to this link:

http://www.statpoint.com/downloads/setup15214E.exe

Enter the username and password from the e-mail if it is not already filled in. Reply “Save” to the prompt that asks whether you want to save the exe file. Double-click on it in the download window when it has finished downloading and then go ahead and run it.  Go through the “typical” installation procedure and enter the following serial number when prompted:  C8A0-E1P1-Y020-K035-6861 (those are zeroes, not ohs).

After installation is complete, go to your “All Programs" list and look for Statgraphics Centurion XV. The first time you run the program you will get a box that says STATGRAPHICS Centurion License Manager.  It will show a “product key” number at the top (which is unique to your computer), and it will ask for an “activation code” at the bottom.  Now, at this point don’t click the “get code” button.  Instead, leave the License Manager box open, and go back to your browser and go to the following site:

http://www.statpoint.net/Activate.aspx (A should be capitalized)

Enter your name and Duke University as your institution, and enter your Duke e-mail address.    Also enter the product key and serial number from the License Manager dialog box.  After filling in all the fields and clicking “Submit”, you should get an e-mail within a minute or two that contains the activation code.  Copy and paste it into the License Manager dialog box and click “Upgrade”.  You should then see a message saying that your license has been activated. 

When you first run the program (by clicking on its program icon), you may get the following message if you are running Windows Vista: “You must have write access to your computer’s registry when you first run this program.  This normally requires administrator rights.  Please correct and try again.”  If you see this message, then RIGHT-click the program icon and select “Run as Administrator” from the pop-up menu.  You will only need to do this the first time—it will launch normally afterward.

When the program actually runs for the first time, you will be asked if you want to use the “Six Sigma” menu.  Reply NO to this.   You will then see a “Statwizard” screen appear.  I suggest that you uncheck the box that asks if you want to run the Statwizard each time you start the program, and then cancel out of it.  Then go to Help/About on the menu system to verify that your version is 15.2.14.  Let me know if you have any trouble with this procedure.