DECISION 411
  Spring 2005 - Term 4
Professor Professor Bob Nau
Office W323 Fuqua
Office Hours By appointment
Phone 660-7763
E-Mail robert.nau@duke.edu
Admin Assistant Carol Bray , 660-7773, W301D Fuqua

Table of Contents

Course Description

This course will cover a variety of statistical forecasting methods that are applicable in many functional areas of business, including simple and multiple regression, exponential smoothing, seasonal decomposition, and ARIMA models. The emphasis will be on learning to apply these methods to real data using a full-featured microcomputer statistics package (Statgraphics) and a spreadsheet package (Excel). The course objective is for you to gain competence in using these forecasting methods as well as in general statistical data analysis and computer modeling. By the end of the course you should know how to collect data from diverse sources, massage it into a form which can be analyzed on the computer, perform various kinds of exploratory data analysis, and ultimately generate forecasts from it by selecting and fitting an appropriate statistical model. We will also discuss some of the managerial issues surrounding the use of forecasting models in business and the challenges posed by recent dramatic developments in the U.S. and global economies. Concepts of time series analysis introduced in this course should prove helpful in courses and professional work in finance, marketing, operations, and consulting.

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Preassignment

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Syllabus and outline 

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Resources

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Communication

  • Decision 411 newsgroup

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